New Delhi: BJP along with its existing allies seems poised to get past the psychologically crucial 200 Lok Sabha seats as massive gains indicated for BJP in politically crucial Uttar Pradesh.
The CSDS- CNN-IBN opinion election tracker indicated that at the lower end, the party will win 152 of 450-odd seats spread over 13 states including Delhi.
The sitting party and other major party of country, Congress may get 55-113 seats in these states.
Meanwhile poll did not give seat projections for Punjab, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand, but indicated a clear edge for BJP. It also did not give seat shares for Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh and Haryana where Congress has incumbency to deal with.
The CSDS predicted a 41-49 total for BJP in UP. Although anther survey, conducted by Nielsen for ABP News channel, put the party’s share at 32 in UP, the overall trend reflected in the two exercises suggest that the BJP may pull off its best performance since its power run in the politically crucially state in the 90s.
Congress which had surprised itself by winning 21 seats UP in 2009 is likely to come down to 4-10, As per the CSDS survey.
The election tracker also predicted a BJP sweep of Rajasthan. The soundings suggest that the BJP which won a landslide in the assembly polls can hope to win 20-24 of the 25 seats in the state. The estimated tally for Congress in the state is 0-2.
It has also been predicted that BSP and SP which have dominated UP between them will also suffer reverses.
According to survey, BSP will get 10- 16 seats, while predicting a much lower 8-14 for the ruling party of Uttar Pradesh. Others are expected to win 2-6 seats.
The opinion poll conducted by Nielsen for ABP News channel also indicated huge losses for Congress whose tally may shrink to 8. The pollster said that Congress will not be able to take its tally beyond 12 even if continues its alliance with Ajit Singh’s RLD.
Like CSDS, it also predicted setbacks both BSP and SP, with estimated totals of 15 and 14, respectively.
Signficantly, the Nielsen polls also suggest that the newly form party AAP could win two seats with 6% support on its maiden foray into UP.
The findings of the CSDS, which had forecast 4-6 seats for AAP and I-3 for for BJP in Delhi, suggest that government of Arvind Kejriwal enjoys the support of 74% of the people. CM’s personal popularity stands even higher, at 76%. Kejriwal is also marginally ahead of BJP’s PM candidate and Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the most preferred PM nominee. The Delhi CM was endorsed by 34% against 32% who signaled their support to Modi.
Modi had comes across as more popular than BJP which, according to CSDS, is favoured by 30% of Delhi population.
Rahul Gandhi has emerged as the distant third with 8% support.
Notify that it was UP which helped BJP emerge as the second largest party and the principal opposition at the Centre by electing 51 of its nominees in the 1991 election at the height of the pro-Ram mandir sentiments. The state also helped BJP emerge as the single largest formation at the Centre in the 1996 by contributing 52 seats. Its share had jumped to 58, excluding two Independents who won on its symbol, in 1998 when the party formed the government.
Although its returns from the state dipped to 25 in 1999, party managed to retain power after the mid-term polls in 1999 because of the combination of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s appeal and because of its success in cashing in on the nationalist sentiments triggered by Pakistan’s aggression in Kargil.
With no similar wind at its back, party crashed to a shock defeat in 2004 when its tally slumped to 10 in 2004 elections. Failure in UP in 2009 was a major factor in party’s defeat in 2009.
The CSDS poll also suggested that BJP’s decision to project Modi as its PM candidate has paid off. In UP 35% backed him as their preference for the top job, while in Rajasthan 27% of the BJP supporters gave him the credit for party’s massive win in the assembly elections. As against this, 12% identified CM Vasundhara Raje as the main factor.
Bureau Report
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