Patna: A vast research and analysis for assembly election of Bihar had been conducted by
Shining India News in the tenure of 40 days. The sample size for the survey was more then
1.29 lac. Teams had conducted survey by door to door interviewing voters and face to face
in all the assembly constituencies segments of Bihar.
This survey had reflected the real picture of Bihar election 2020, that include the formation
of government in Bihar.
The survey will disclose who will form a government either Mahagathbandhan or NDA
alliance in Bihar. It had been found in the Shining India Survey that there is a lot of
resentment against the CM Nitish Kumar government and there is going to be a very close
contest between the two major alliances in Bihar.
According to the Shining India Survey in Bihar, the public momentum is now visibly in favour
to RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav.
It will be speculation of very bitter battle between the NDA and the Grand Alliance, but can
the close contest seats spoil the game of both coalitions?
Notable that there are 37 seats which can be the witness of neck to neck fight and If 18- 20
seats go towards Mahagathbandhan, then Mahagathbandhan will be very close to form
government.
If the NDA alliance registers their victory in close contest seats then it can become a chance
for the BJP alliance.
Shining India Opinion Poll Bihar 2020.
Party ( Alliance) Wise Vote Share Projection.
MGB : 35.8% +-3%
NDA : 39.6% +-3%
GDSF: 7.8% +-1%
LJP : 5.2% +-1%
PDA : 4.2% +-1%
OTH : 7.5% +-2%
According to the Shining India opinion poll, the NDA will get the highest vote share of 39.6%
and the Mahagathbandan vote share is projected to 35.8%,
While LJP vote share projected 5.2%. Other alliance GDSF vote share projected to 7.8%. PDA
vote share projected 4.2% and others small party and independent vote share projected to
7.5%.
Party Wise Seat Share Projection
MGB : 107 +-15
NDA : 113 +- 11
LJP : 7 +-3
AIMIM+: 5 +-2
OTH : 11 +-5
The survey reflects the fact that there is just 2-3 percent margin to each party over neck to
neck fight seats i.e. 37 assembly constituencies.
According to Shining India Survey the BJP-JDU alliance is projected to very small advantage
with 113 /243 seats in the Bihar assembly. The given data and statistics of opinion poll had
been released by Shining India Survey and Shining India News on Sunday.
The Shining India Survey predicted that the BJP is likely to emerge as the single-largest party
in the NDA alliance, while its ally JDU is projected to 2nd position in NDA alliance.
The RJD-Congress Tejashwi Yadav led Mahagathbandan, on the other hand, is predicted to
win 106 /243 seats. RJD is likely to emerge as the single largest party.
Chirag Paswan led LJP is predicted to get 7 seats.
Upender Kushwaha alliance GDSF partner and The AIMIM President Assaduddin Owaisi led
AIMIM are projected to bag 5 seats.
Meanwhile IND and other party allies are projected to get 11 seats.
The main issues that affect Bihar Assembly Elections 2020 are as follows.
#Corruption is very high at the local level,
#Unemployment is a big problem.
#Despite the prohibition, illegal sale and black marketing of liquor continues to haunt
people.
# The condition of Bihar's education and medical system is poor.
# The facilities which the migrant labourers should have got during the lockdown corona
period were not found
# The people of rural areas are very upset due to poverty and inflation.
# Farmers get spoiled during floods and There is a lot of damage in rural areas during the
rains, there are no flood prevention measures in rural areas.
#Law and order in Bihar is also not very good.
Notable that any party or alliance need minimum 122 seats in the 243-seat Bihar assembly
to secure a simple majority.
The Shining India Survey and Shining India News Opinion Poll covered all of the Bihar
assembly constituency segments.
The time period of Survey and Bihar opinion poll field work was conducted from 14th
September to 24th October 2020.
Sample size of this Survey of all over Bihar was 1,29,468 voters that covers people of all age
groups.
According to Shining India Survey 37 seats out of 243 seats are still very close fight within
the error of margin that is where the difference between the 1st leading party and 2nd
party is three percentage points or less.
NDA leads in 18 out of these 37 seats and Mahagathbandhan in 15. A small swing of 2
percent can make these seats turn. If there is such a swing against the NDA then it would fall
below in his number telly.
Editor in chief of Shining India Survey Hrithik Saini says that the margin is less than 3 percent
in 37 seats there is very tough battle. Even a small swing could turn things in these seats.
Hrithik Saini says Bihar youth voters are very big X-factor. A huge large chunk of youth
voters are clearly dissatisfied with Bihar CM Nitish Kumar and Bihar Govt.
A swing of 2-3 percent against any alliance can completely reverse the equations. A swing in
favour of Mahagathbandhan could lead to an even bigger victory than what’s being
predicted.
It has been notable that Bihar Assembly Election 2020 will be held in three phases from
October 28th, 3rd November and 7th November. The Bihar assembly elections results will
be announced EC on November 10.
Bureau Report
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