Bhojpuri actor turned politician Manoj Tiwari is likely to be the next president of the Delhi BJP after the party received a drubbing in the MCD by polls.
According to a senior Delhi BJP leader, changing dynamics within the electorate of Delhi has a major bearing on the party’s new direction.
“Without the converting capability of migrant votes which are going mostly with AAP, there is not much the BJP can do apart from netting its loyal vote. People who win seats rule and people who lose, talk of vote percentage to cover their loss,” the senior leader said.
The party feels that Manoj Tiwari, who enjoys a vast popularity in the dominant Purvanchali votes in Delhi will not only get them more votes, but more importantly also convert their vote percentage into seats.
IMMIGRANT VOTES MATTER IN DELHI
There is a section within the party which feels that when it comes to Assembly elections, the BJP is cursed with the number 35. This is more or less the percentage of votes which the party has been getting consistently in the last 20 years.
In 1998 and 2004, the BJP got close to 34 and 35 per cent of votes but couldn’t form the govt. Again in 2008 the party got around 36 per cent, yet the throne went to the Congress.
In 2013, BJP got 33 percent vote which got converted into 31 seats but couldn’t form the government as AAP and Congress trumped them. In 2015, the BJP got only around 2 percent vote less, but in a spectacular role reversal, only managed 3 seats in Arvind Kejriwal’s dominant win.
This inability to go past 35 has crippled the BJP.
WHY MANOJ TIWARI?
A BJP leader on condition of anonymity said, “What the party is hoping to get from Manoj Tiwari is that given the fact that there are close to 40 per cent of voter are Purvanchali, he will be able to help the party get away from the curse of 35 due to a presence of 40 per cent Purvanchali voters, which will help them get more seats.”
BJP leaders also point out that much before them or the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party understood this phenomenon and gave tickets to people who have roots in eastern UP or Bihar. Another issue bothering the BJP is the lacklustre performance of Satish Upadhyay and the party’s internal politics.
Satish Upadhyay doesn’t command much respect within the party, in addition to the already existing factions of Vijay Goel, Vijendra Gupta or Parvesh Verma, which the party has not been able to contain till now.
Manoj Tiwari is considered to be close to party president Amit Shah and this will work to his advantage in attempting to neutralize factionalism within the party.
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