If INC and AIUDF  joint fight Against NDA could have made a difference in 16 seats in #Assam

#Guwahati  :  Apart from Jammu and Kashmir, the Muslim population is highest in Assam, West Bengal and Kerala which went to polls simultaneously. Assam has 34.2 per cent Muslims and the results would have been different had the Muslim votes were consolidated within one grand alliance.

All India United Democratic Front head Ajmal Badruddin had initially sought an alliance with Congress, but chief minister Tarun Gogoi did not want to lose his party’s primacy over Muslim voters. Ajmal had earlier told ET that he was ready to discuss with a positive mind the possibility of an alliance or understanding with Congress. But Congress did not agree and the result: Muslim votes split helping BJP gobble up a simple majority.

There are many constituencies like Prafulla Mahanta’s Barhampur where Congress and AIUDF came second and third clearly indicating that a joint effort would have borne fruit. Congress has a vote share of 31 per cent (better than BJP’s 29.4 per cent) and AIUDF 12.9 per cent.

Though these two parties’ spheres of influence overlap each other in a large number of constituencies their combined strength could have made a difference in, at least, 16 constituencies. Now, Congress and AIUDF put together have 38 seats and the situation in Assam would have been dramatically different had there been an alliance that did not let the Muslim votes split.

In Bengal (27 per cent Muslims), the Marxists and Congress believed that by continuously accusing Mamata Banerjee of having an unspoken alliance with BJP, they could break the Muslim voters away from Mamata towards their last-minute, opportunistic alliance. But it didn’t work for the simple reason that the Muslims still trust Mamata more than the Marxists. After all it was the Rizwanur murder and Nandigram firing that pushed Muslims away from the Marxists.

In Kerala (26.6 per cent Muslims), Congress’ ally Muslim League retained their 7.2 per cent vote share (it was 7.92 per cent in 2011) and lost just two seats, retaining 18. But outside the League’s constituencies, Muslims seem to have dumped Congress and favoured the Left. This is a paradox but could be explained in terms of the “lesser evil” considerations, Left’s stronger posturing against BJP, and Congress’ ambivalence and loss of credibility on social issues.