According to the Vote Vibe ‘State Vibe’ survey ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections, the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party is ahead of the Congress and the BJP, while Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann is the most popular face to lead the state. However, the survey finds that Mann’s popularity edges that of his party in the state of Punjab.
The survey puts AAP’s vote share at 33.5%, ahead of the Congress at 27.6%. The BJP is third at 14.7%, followed by the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) at 12.5% and Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De) at 8.1%. About 1.9% of voters were undecided.
On the question of who should be the next Chief Minister, Mann is the top choice at 35.9%, which is slightly higher than AAP’s vote share. Congress leader Charanjit Singh Channi is second at 19%, followed by SAD chief Sukhbir Badal at 14.6%. BJP’s Kewal Singh Dhillon got 10.1% and Waris Punjab De’s Amritpal Singh got 7.9%.
People also believe AAP will win. When asked which party is likely to win the 2027 elections, 33.7% said AAP, 23.1% said Congress and 16.3% said BJP.
Drugs To Concern For Voters
Drugs are the biggest election issue for Punjab voters at 31.1%. Unemployment and migration come next at 23%, followed by law and order and women’s safety at 17.3%. Inflation stands at 10.2%.
Drugs matter more in villages, where 36.1% named them the top issue, compared with 22.7% in cities. Among voters aged 25 to 34, the figure rises to 42.2%. Urban voters are more concerned about jobs (27.5%) and law and order (20.9%).
Voters Unhappy With MLAs
The survey found that voters are more unhappy with their local MLAs than with the state government. About 52.4% are dissatisfied with their MLA, compared with 42.9% for the government, a gap of about 9.5 points. Opinion on the government is sharply divided: 30.2% are “completely satisfied” and 24.4% are “completely dissatisfied”.
Among those who voted for AAP in 2024, 58.3% are satisfied with the government. Among SAD voters, 59.6% are dissatisfied, as are 49.2% of BJP voters.
Who Is Backing Whom?
AAP leads among Scheduled Caste voters at 44.9%. Congress and AAP are almost level among Jat Sikhs. The BJP leads among Hindu General category voters at 34.7%, while Congress leads among Muslims at 83%.
AAP’s lead is bigger in cities (36.6% against Congress’s 23.6%) than in villages (31.6% against 29.8%). It is also stronger among women, where it leads by about 11 points, than among men, where the lead is about 1 point. Among voters aged 18 to 24, Congress (38.8%) is slightly ahead of AAP (36.3%). By region, AAP does best in Malwa. Congress and the BJP are strongest in Doaba, and the Akali Dal is strongest in Majha.
About 78.5% of voters say they have already decided whom to vote for, while 11.6% have a preference but no final decision, and 6.4% have not decided. Young voters are the most open: only 56% of 18 to 24-year-olds have made up their minds.
Party ideology (36.9%) and the candidate’s image (29.4%) matter most to voters when they vote. The chief ministerial face counts for 11.7%, while caste or religion matters to just 2.2%.
‘Vote Chori’ Has Voters Split
Voters are divided on whether the opposition’s allegations of vote theft will affect the elections. About 42.5% think they will, 44.5% think they will not, and 13% are unsure. The split follows party lines. Among Congress voters, 59.6% expect an impact, as do 50.2% of AAP voters, while 73% of BJP voters and 59.7% of SAD voters do not.
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