A Vote Vibe survey ‘State Vibe’, ahead of the next year’s Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, suggests that 41.3% of people in the state are satisfied with the incumbent government while 38.2% are not. When asked how satisfied people are with the work of their current MLAs, then 23.6% of the people said they are satisfied, while 50.2% were not. People’s opinion hints that there is anger against the current MLAs, therefore, this could impact ticket distribution ahead of the crucial polls. Among these MLAs, people are most unhappy with BSP representatives with a dissatisfaction rate of 81%.
What Is The Most Important Election Issue?
According to the Vote Vibe, unemployment is at the top with 26.5%, followed by inflation 16.3%, farmers’ issues 11.3%, law and order 9.9%, education and healthcare 8.9%, and corruption or the Ram Temple donation controversy 8.0%.
In the age group between 18–24 years old, unemployment is the key issue at 36%. Inflation is relatively higher among urban (20.7%) and Muslim (22.3%) respondents while the SIR (Special Intensive Revision) is the main issue for only 3.6%.
Most Important Factor While Voting
When going out to vote, 24.8% of people believe that a party’s image matters, 15.9% feel ideology is the key point, 15.3% see development as the main issue, CM face 15.1%, candidate’s 15.1%, and benefits from government schemes 7.7%.
Another 5.7% say that caste or religion matters most to them, although, below, the caste divide in voting patterns is clear.
Has the Voting Decision Been Made?
63.6% of the respondents say that they have completely made up their minds, 19.5% have a preference but no final decision, 9.7% have not decided, and 7.2% say “don’t know”. BJP voters are the firmest with 69.8%, and people above 45 are less firm about 53%.
Who Is the Most Preferred Next Chief Minister
When asked who they would like to see as the next Chief Minister, then 44.1% say Yogi Adityanath, Akhilesh Yadav 34.5%, Priyanka Gandhi 6.5%, Mayawati 5.8%.
Yogi’s personal preference (44.1%) is 41.9%, while Akhilesh’s preference share is 39.1%. In other words, Yogi above (34.5%) draws more BJP’s support vote share than his party. Akhilesh’s preference (39.1%) is above the SP’s vote share (34.5%).
The Contest Is Almost Even
As far as people’s voting intention is concerned then 41.9% say they may go with BJP alliance, SP alliance 39.1%, BSP 6.4%, others 4.9%, undecided 7.8%.
However, if public perception is to be taken note then 42.2% suggest that SP is ahead while BJP is at 41.2%. So in public perception, SP is marginally ahead, while in voting intention, BJP leads.
Both margins are very small and within the effect of age: BJP leads among older voters. Those aged 55 plus are BJP’s strongest supporters, and SP among younger supporters.
Urban vs rural
When comparing the situation in urban vs rural areas, BJP has a clear lead in cities, while in villages the contest is almost even.
BJP is ahead in vote share terms in Western UP, SP is ahead in the Awadh region, while Purvanchal and Bundelkhand are a tough battle.
OBC is decisive
The Samajwadi Party leads among the Yadav segment, while BJP leads among Non-Yadav OBCs.
Split within SC
According to Vote Vibe, BJP leads among Non-Jatav scheduled caste voters, while BSP leads among Jatav SC voters. As far as the general category is concerned, then 66% are with the BJP, and 63% of Muslims are with the Samajwadi Party.
Allegations of “Vote Theft”
54.9% believe it will have an impact on the election, 31.2% feel it won’t, while 13.9% could not decide. The opinion is divided along party lines: 75.9% of SP’s 2024 voters say yes, versus only 33.2% of BJP’s. Muslims are 70.5% yes, while 48.7% of upper-caste Hindus say no.
Bureau Report
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