BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra looks like a divorce made in heaven. The only question is, when?

#Mumbai :  #ShivSena is again in the news for one of its signature low-cost, high-visibility protests. The English news media has gone to town claiming that the #ShivSena has blackened India’s name, as if a bottle of ink is adequate to stain the fair name of a big country. BJP and Shiv Sena are going hammer and tongs at each other, claiming an exclusive handle on knowing what is in ‘national interest’. After every incident, mild or outrageous, of ‘intolerance’, the cry goes out from the studios ‘Why is PM Narendra  Modi silent?’ Why indeed.

But let us first examine the motivations from the points-of-view (PoVs) of different parties and dramatis personae.

Shiv Sena: For Shiv Sena, it is now an existential fight. BJP, whose governments both at the Centre and in Maharashtra it is a part of, has lost no opportunity to humiliate it. ‘Coalition Dharma’, as Shri Atal Bihari  Vajpayee demonstrated, relies heavily on old fashioned virtues of manners and courtesy which are singularly lacking in BJP’s latest avatar. What is making Sena more edgy is that BJP netas locally have made no secret of their ambition of going after the municipalties, the very Gangotris of Sena’s legitimacy and revenue. The other serious problem for the Shiv Sena is MNS. With its younger and more active cadres, MNS has been more visible at the ground level in the Marathi heartlands of Mumbai—helping people get their Aadhar Cards or getting Senior Citizens their privilege cards. It all adds up come election time.  With the moderates in its stronghold leaning towards BJP and the hardliners getting attracted towards MNS’ brand of politics, the Sena is definitely feeling the squeeze. Defeat in the next round of Municipal elections to civic bodies in Kalyan and Dombivali could trigger an exodus from the Sena before Mumbai polls come up. A defeat there could well be its death knell. In these circumstances, soft targets like Ghulam Ali or Kasuri are simply early Diwali for Sena. For the price of an ink bottle and a few hours in jail for a handful of its cadres, all news channels have reassured Sena’s voter base that it still remains relevant. In practical terms then, BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra looks like a divorce made in heaven. The only question is, when?

BJP Maharashtra: BJP, the dominant partner in Maharashtra government, appears to have two masters, one in Nagpur and the other in Delhi. RSS has made it clear that it wants an all-India footprint and if that means stepping on its allies toes, so be it. RSS thinks BJP can win elections on its own riding by riding on Modi’s oratorical coattails; its allies can start looking at pension funds. Maharashtra has entered that zone. Under normal circumstances, BJP cadres in Maharashtra would have had no difficulty competing with the Sena on anti-Pakistani rhetoric. The problem is that BJP’s central leadership in Delhi has decided to go soft on Pakistan and has clearly reined them in. Thereby hangs a tale.
BJP Delhi and NaMo:  To understand the motivations of BJP central leadership in Delhi, especially in relation to Pakistan, let us try and make a picture out of seemingly unconnected recent events.