New Delhi: The Indian Meteorological Department today announced that the monsoon season this year will be below normal with weak El-Nino conditions likely to persist during the south west monsoon. In a press conference the Earth Sciences Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan said there is a 35 percent probability of the rainfall being below normal; 28 percent probability of a normal rainfall and zero probability of rainfall above normal.
Releasing the IMD’s data Vardhan said rains are expected to be 93 percent of long-term average. Addressing concerns of the El Nino condition, Vardhan said the weak conditions are prevailing over the Pacific and the conditions will likely persist during the June or South West Monsoon. The final monsoon forecast will be given in June, the minister added.
Addressing a press conference, Vardhan said the rains will be 93% of the 50-year average. He said that the chance of deficient monsoon is 33%, probability of normal monsoon is 28% and the probability of above normal monsoon is negligible.
Last year’s deficit monsoon and unseasonal rains in the past few months that destroyed standing crops across large parts of the country and the predicted below normal will add to farmer distress.India gets over 70% of its annual rainfall in the monsoon and any shortfall in rains causes crop failure which in turn has a cascading effect on a host of sectors and causes a spike in inflation.
Many international agencies have predicted El Nino – abnormal heating up of east and central equatorial Pacific waters, causes change in wind patterns – which adversely affects the Indian monsoon as well. However, there have been years – for e.g. 1997 and 2006 – when El Nino occurred but Indian monsoon turned out to be normal.
When asked by reporters whether El Nino is affecting monsoon in India, the minister said the global phenomena has also been taken in to account in the calculations. Interestingly, independent weather forecaster, Skymet, however, had predicted that the India will witness normal monsoon this year.
Last year’s monsoon was 11.9% below the 50-year average, leading to drought-like conditions in parts of several states including Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana.
Bureau Report
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