The Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News survey done in the last week of November 2017, among 3,655 voters across 50 Assembly constituencies found the Congress leading among voters, suggesting that the ‘Gujarati asmita‘ card might not work as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expects it to.
As per the poll, the BJP is likely to get 91-99 seats while the Congress may clinch 78-86 seats in the 182-member Gujarat Assembly.
It also claimed that both the Congress and the BJP will get 43% of the votes.
It further found Rahul Gandhi`s popularity surging while that of PM Narendra Modi taking a slight hit and the gap between the two leaders` likeability by the public narrowing down to just seven points from 16 points in October.
However, with 64 percent votes, PM Modi still remained the most popular leader in the state, as per the survey.
The survey opined that economic hardships faced by the voters is a major reason behind the Congress` rise and also a major reason for the Patidars` support to the Congress besides Hardik Patel`s call to defeat the BJP over their unmet demand for reservation.
The survey also ascribed the Congress` new-found support among women as another reason for its rising popularity.
Opinion poll predicts 106-116 seats for BJP in Gujarat:
However, according to another opinion poll, the BJP is headed towards a comfortable win in the 2017 Gujarat Assembly election.
The survey by India TV-VMR concluded that the BJP is likely to win between 106 to 116 seats in the 182-seat state Assembly.
On the other hand, the Congress, who is said to be giving the BJP sleepless nights, was expected to win 63-73 to seats.
It also gave 2-4 seats to ‘others’.
The India TV opinion poll indicated that BJP would win 23-27 seats in South Gujarat, while the Congress would bag 6-10 seats. In North Gujarat, the BJP is predicted to win 30-34 and the Congress 18-22 seats.
As for Saurashtra, opinion poll prediction says that BJP will win 27-31 seats, while the Congress is expected to win 23-27 seats. And in Kutch, as per the survey, the BJP is likely to get 27-31 seats and the Congress 23-27 seats.
The vote percentage as per the opinion poll is – BJP: 45% votes, Congress: 40% votes, ‘others’: 15% votes.
The Gujarat Assembly election is scheduled to be held on 9 and 14 December 2017.
Demonetisation, Goods and Services Tax, the emergence of Patidar, OBC and Dalit leaders and of course ‘Hindutva’ are some of the issues dominating the election campaign.