Tamizhaga: Tamil Nadu Cliffhanger Government Formation Scenario: In a historic election result, actor Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), a debutant in Tamil Nadu politics, emerges as the single largest party, winning 108 seats. However, the majority mark in the 234-member assembly is 118, and the TVK is short of 11 MLAs (because Vijay won from two seats) to form a government. The TVK now requires a coalition partner to cross the magic number to form a government in Tamil Nadu. Notably, TVK chief Vijay’s father has extended an open invitation to the Congress party for an alliance. However, Congress alone cannot help the TVK secure a majority as it has only five seats. There is one more important sceneario, if Vijay vacates one seat, the house strength falls to 233, and subsequently the majority mark falls to 117.
Here’s the possible coalition sharing equations (in case of 118 as majority mark) for Vijay to become Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu:
Congress-Left-TVK alliance
TVK chief Vijay has won from two seats – Tiruchirapalli East and Perambur and will now have to vacate one seat. This means, the TVK’s tally goes down to 107. Since Vijay’s father has invited Congress to form a government, TVK’s 107 and INC’s five take it to 112, still short of six MLAs. Here, Left parties can help the TVK, as the CPI and the CPIM each have two seats. The Indian Union Muslim League also has two seats and if it extends support to the TVK, it can reach the magic number of 118.
Majority Mark: 118
Coalition: TVK 107 + Congress 5 + Left 4 + IUML 2 = 118
Alliance with ADMK
While Vijay campaigned against both – DMK and the AIADMK – in the polls and secured the single largest party status, it can align with the ADMK for a stable government. All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has 47 seats, and TVK’s 107 seats can bring the total to 154, making it a more stable coalition option this time.
Majority Mark: 118
Coalition: TVK 107 + ADMK 47 = 154
The Outside Support Magic
Just like the Congress extended outside support to the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi in December 2013, ADMK or the DMK can extend outside support to the TVK to form a minority government. However, this will pave the way to a government prone to blackmail, and Vijay may not go for this option at all.
The Bypoll Mathematics
Yet another option for the TVK to form a government is to take a leaf out of the BJP’s playbook. In 2020, when the BJP was seven short of the majority mark in Madhya Pradesh, the Congress had formed a government in the state after the 2018 state assembly elections. However, in 2020, a total of 22 Congress MLAs led by Jyotiraditya Scindia rebeled against the party and joined the BJP, helping Shivraj Singh Chouhan forma government in the state. The MLAs went on to contest a bypoll and won on the BJP ticket. Similarly, 10-15 MLAs from DMK or AIDMK may rebel and join the TVK, helping Vijay form a government until a bypoll helps him secure a clear majority.
Majority Mark: 118
Coalition: TVK 107 + Rebel MLAs 15 = 122
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