J&K Polls: Has BJP Accepted Its Slim Chances Of Victory In The Valley? | Analysis

Jammu and Kashmir Vidhansabha Chunav: Today is the last date for filing of nominations for the third phase of the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Of the 90 seats, 43 are in Jammu while 47 are in Kashmir. However, despite boasting of ‘Naya Kashmir’ following the abrogation of Article 370, the BJP appears to have realized that it has a very slim chance of winning in the valley. 

On Wednesday, the BJP clarified that it would contest only 19 seats out of the total 47 in the Kashmir region. The BJP’s final list of 19 candidates for Kashmir includes eight from the 16 Assembly seats in South Kashmir, six from the 15 seats in Central Kashmir, and five from the 16 seats in North Kashmir. Despite Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s announcement that the BJP would contest all 90 Assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir, the party has decided to skip 28 seats in the Valley. This comes even as BJP leaders assert that they will form the government in the Union Territory.

While the majority mark is 46, the BJP is contesting 62 seats. According to a report by the Indian Express, the decision is likely to further upset senior BJP leaders, who are already frustrated with the party leadership for ‘overlooking their sacrifices’ during the ticket distribution process. According to reports, several leaders have privately acknowledged that this move will only reinforce their belief that they have no ‘future prospects’ within the party. 

The report claimed that the BJP leaders are not expecting any ‘miracle’ in Kashmir valley and the party is indirectly betting on some independent candidates who have the potential to pull off an upset. The BJP’s rivals like the National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have accused the BJP of supporting ‘proxy’ candidates in the poll fray.

The BJP’s decision to field only 19 candidates in the valley also shows that the party knows it has failed to win the trust of the people in the valley. Now, these 19 candidates hold a key to BJP’s victory and government formation in the state.

On the other hand, Congress and National Conference have joined hands to defeat the BJP while the PDP is leading a lone battle after finding no space in the INDIA bloc for the assembly polls. Other regional parties and independent candidates are likely to play kingmakers in the election which has turned into a multi-cornered contest.

Bureau Report