Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), whose founder Vijay sent shockwaves through the Tamil Nadu political landscape by declaring that he would contest the state assembly election without aligning with any of the established political forces, i.e., the DMK or AIADMK, is once again making a buzz after exit polls predicted that his party is projected to secure a significant 24.7% vote share in the 2026 Tamil Nadu elections.
Notably, the two dominant Dravidian parties, DMK and AIADMK, have ruled Tamil Nadu alternately for more than 50 years and continue to remain the biggest political forces in the state.
High turnout, higher stakes
Polling for the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly was held on April 23, recording a turnout of over 84%. Exit polls released immediately after have created fresh buzz around TVK’s performance and its potential impact on the state’s political balance.
Vijay vs NTR: Similar beginnings, different paths
Vijay’s rise has compelled many to draw comparisons between his trajectory and that of NT Rama Rao (NTR). Although both NTR and Vijay chose to enter politics, without the backing of any established party and while at the very pinnacle of their superstardom, their political journeys have unfolded quite differently. NTR stepped into the political arena at the age of 60, following a long and illustrious film career, and launched his party, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), in January 1983. Within just nine months, he secured a decisive and resounding victory; the TDP won 202 out of 294 seats, and in January 1983, he was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, thereby becoming the state’s first non-Congress Chief Minister.
From actor to kingmaker?
Although TVK’s Vijay is not projected to achieve a sweep on the scale of NTR, he is likely to emerge as a kingmaker by securing a significant number of seats. According to various exit polls, TVK is expected to win between 15 and 45 seats, enough to play a decisive role in government formation if the results lead to a hung assembly.
Echoes of the AGP movement
In many ways, Vijay’s TVK also draws parallels with the Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) story of 1985, where a youth-led student movement successfully challenged established political giants. Like the AGP leadership, Vijay is positioning TVK as an alternative to the “Dravidian duopoly” of the DMK and AIADMK. Demographically, while NTR appealed across age groups, Vijay’s strength lies almost entirely within the 18-35 bracket, particularly among first-time voters, where he reportedly holds nearly 68% support.
With nearly 68 per cent backing among first-time voters, TVK has tapped into the aspirations of a younger generation that is increasingly disillusioned with traditional Dravidian politics.
Alliance or alone: All eyes on May 4
As the counting of votes is scheduled for May 4, all eyes are on Vijay’s next political move. His decision to remain independent or forge alliances will be crucial in determining not just TVK’s future, but also the broader political direction of Tamil Nadu. By disrupting the established order in his very first electoral outing, Vijay has already emerged as a significant new force in the state’s politics.
Bureau Report
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