#Delhi : #Fog predictions could become more accurate with a new method developed by the #Indian #Institute of #Technology (#IIT) #Delhi in association with the Centre of Excellence in #Climatology.
In the trial stages, the method has been found to predict the occurrence of fog with an accuracy of 95 per cent-the forecasts precise within a time window of 30-90 minutes.
Fog is a common phenomenon in Delhi during winter, thanks to the passage of the western disturbance across northwestern India along with a significant amount of moisture.
The new method uses a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, through which the likeliness of #foggy and non-foggy days is identified.
#Delhi has significant frequencies of low winds, especially at night. Due to some other local factors, scientists say, fog prediction is a complex process and requires adequate representation of the local perturbations in weather prediction techniques.
The model, brought out by #IIT #Delhi Professor Manju Mohan and Swagata Payra of the Centre of Excellence in Climatology, is pivoted on an approach known as Multi-rule Based Diagnostic (#MRD) which characterises the local atmospheric conditions.
“#Fog prediction has long been a challenge for operational forecast. This is mainly due to lack of appropriate fog physics in current operational models. The method has been used for prediction after successful validation for surface temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed over the region of interest,” Mohan and Payra said describing their study.
“After analysis of numerous simulations over the study area, criteria for the above meteorological parameters are used to determine the onset of fog. The #MRD approach helps predict fog for the next three days. There is a 95 per cent success rate for predictions; in more than half, i.e. 56 per cent, of onset time predictions, we achieved an accuracy of 30 minutes, while 84 per cent of the times, there was an accuracy of 90 minutes,” they added.
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