NewDelhi: How much did SIR influence Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s landslide in West Bengal? The question has taken centre stage after the election results delivered a change in the political balance. The BJP has won 206 out of 294 seats and is set to form the government, while the incumbent Trinamool Congress (TMC), after 15 years in power, has been reduced to 80 seats.
Before the election, the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) led to the removal of around 91 lakh names from the voter list. These included deceased voters, shifted voters, absentees, duplicate entries, names missing from older rolls and cases flagged due to “logical inconsistencies”.
The issue became politically charged, with claims that Muslim voters were disproportionately affected. The community forms a major part of the TMC’s support base, making the voter list revision a central talking point through the campaign.
Data shows that 112 assembly seats recorded net deletions of 25,000 or more voters under the SIR. In 2021, the TMC had won 86 of these seats, while the BJP had 26. This time, the BJP has taken 72, including Bhawanipur where Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee lost. The TMC is down to 39 seats in this group, while the Congress has won one.
Analysts say SIR-linked deletions, along with a 2-3 percent swing in voting patterns, were enough to influence close contests.
Margin of 32 lakh votes, 5% lead but 125-seat difference
The BJP’s victory came with a margin of nearly 32 lakh votes, translating into a 5 percent vote share lead. The party secured around 46 percent votes, while the TMC stood at 41 percent.
But this relatively small difference in votes translated into a much larger seat difference of around 125 constituencies. In 2021 as well, vote margins were narrower than seat differences suggested, but this time the difference further increased due to constituency-level outcomes.
Experts attribute this to anti-incumbency, voter distribution, campaign dynamics and administrative changes such as SIR.
Some assessments suggest that the effects of SIR were not uniform across the electorate. There are indications that women and Muslim voters may have been impacted in different ways, particularly in closely contested constituencies where even small changes in voting patterns proved decisive. At least two dozen seats show margins close to the scale of voter list changes.
At the same time, governance issues, law and order concerns and leadership perceptions influenced voter sentiment. In several areas, minority voting patterns also showed fragmentation.
In absolute numbers, the BJP polled about 2.92 crore votes against TMC’s 2.60 crore, a difference of roughly 32 lakh votes. But the seat conversion turned this into a 125-seat advantage, showing how strongly constituency distribution determined the results.
Strongholds break, margins narrow
In 10 seats with the highest deletions, all were TMC-held in 2021. Nine of these had been consistent strongholds since 2011.
This time, the party lost Jorasanko and North Howrah. In remaining seats, margins narrowed compared to earlier elections. It indicates erosion in support.
Around 27 lakh voters were removed under “logical inconsistencies”, roughly 5 percent of the electorate. The BJP’s vote gain over the TMC is also estimated to be close to this range.
Not only SIR: migrant return and voter split
The data also shows that SIR was not the only factor at play. Turnout rose or held firm in many constituencies despite the deletions.
A large number of migrant workers returned from other states to vote. Early expectations suggested support for the TMC, but voting patterns did not fully follow that assumption.
The SIR also became a central campaign issue, bringing voter list debates into the spotlight and influencing political messaging on the ground.
Muslim vote splits and changing support base
Muslim voters, around 27 percent of the state population, and traditionally strong TMC supporters showed visible division this time. Vote splits appeared in Malda and Murshidabad, where the Congress gained ground.
In around 90-100 seats influenced by Muslim voting patterns, TMC’s reduced tally suggests part of this base moved away.
In 32 Muslim-majority constituencies, turnout rose by 7.6 percent compared to 2021, but the TMC’s vote share dropped by more than 16 percentage points. The party, which had won all 32 seats earlier, held only 23 this time.
A major share of lost votes appears to have split between Left-ISF-Congress, which also improved performance in several pockets.
In Murshidabad, the BJP gained ground in multiple seats, while opposition consolidation elsewhere prevented a uniform sweep. The district, which had given the TMC 20 seats in 2021, now delivered only nine.
Similar fragmentation appears in Malda, where the TMC dropped from eight seats to six, while the BJP moved from four to six.
Across regions, the pattern points to voter fragmentation rather than a single-direction shift.
The larger picture
The BJP’s 206-seat victory rests on strong performance across SC belts, ST regions, urban zones, migration-linked constituencies and district-level sweeps.
But the data also shows limits. Minority-heavy seats, border areas and parts of South 24 Parganas and Murshidabad were closely contested.
The SIR and voter roll revisions may have influenced margins in tight contests, but they do not fully explain the scale of the result.
The deeper change lies in how votes moved across communities and regions, from consolidation in some areas to fragmentation in others.
In that sense, West Bengal’s verdict is not only about one factor, but about multiple electoral dynamics playing out at the same time, with the SIR becoming one of the most debated among them.
Leave a Reply