United States President Donald Trump on Monday said that ‘there will likely be more’ casualties on the American side as the US strike against Iran to continue until ‘all’ goals are achieved. Trump also promised to avenge the deaths of three American soldiers. The US Central Command has stated that its forces have struck more than 1,000 targets inside Iran during the initial strikes carried out in cooperation with Israel. On the other hand, Iran has also vowed to avenge the killings of its supreme leader and ministers. While Iranian missiles struck across the Middle East, a barrage of missiles was fired on Israel, and many targets were hit, including civilian areas.
However, the death of Khamenei doesn’t ensure that the Iranian regime will cease to exist.
Governing Council In Place
After the death of their Supreme Leader Ayotollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has put in place a governing council to make future decisions. The three-member transitional council will handle the state duties as an interim arrangement. The three members are Khamenei’s close aide Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Court Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei. Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, the 67-year-old cleric, is a member of the Guardian Council. The Guardian Council is responsible for choosing Iran’s supreme leader. Arafi was appointed to the council by the Expediency Council, a powerful arbitration body.
According to analysts, the immediate formation of the governing council shows that Khamenei has already put in place the succession plan, and the regime is not going anywhere soon. By putting in place a committee as for constitutional mechanisms, Iranian authorities have signalled that the system remains intact despite the loss of its Supreme Leader, they feel.
Iran’s Constitutional Rules
Article 111 of the Iranian Constitution, the newly appointed transitional council will govern the nation until an 88-member panel called the Assembly of Experts chooses a new supreme leader. For almost four decades (37 years), Khamenei had been ruling the country as a Supreme Leader.
The 88-member assembly of experts or clerical body is elected by popular vote for eight-year terms. However, all candidates for the Assembly must be vetted and approved by the Guardian Council – a 12-member body. Again, this 12-member Guardian Council is heavily tilted towards the Supreme Leader as six members are appointed directly by the supreme leader and six nominated by the judiciary and approved by parliament. Again, the chief of the judiciary is also appointed by the supreme leader.
No Relief For US, Israel If Regime Continues
Even the United States and Israel are aware that if the existing Iranian regime and its structure continue, there won’t be any relief for the West.
Sagiv Steinberg, Chief Executive Officer, Jerusalem Centre for Security and Foreign Affairs, said, “Neither Israel nor the US will decide what the next step will be. We can only help the Iranian people take the next step. And if they want to, and if they have the strength and the will, they must remove this regime. And that should be the only way.”
Steinberg said that Iran and its Supreme Leader had warned that Israel would not survive until 2040. “After October 7th, Israel realised that it needed to listen to and understand its enemies. Not just read military intelligence material, but if the enemy says they intend to kill you, that means they intend to kill you,” he said.
Even the Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House has clarified that if Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hard-line figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or equally hard-line clerics, reported Reuters.
Trump himself said that he is open to communications with Iran, suggesting Washington does not see the government going anywhere.
A Tougher Iran On Cards Post Khamenei?
If reports are to be believed, Iran had prepared a layered contingency plan for this kind of situation. The formation of the interim governing council indicates the same. As per reports, Khamenei had put in place a four-level succession plan for all top key positions. The Iranian regime knew what was at the stake and thus designed a system that can absorb the shock and show continuity, feel analysts. They highlighted that Iran will now use this attack to justify its hardline stance and will get even harder for taking revenge of Khamenei’s demise.
According to a Reuters report, US officials have also debated whether Khamenei’s death would deter Iran from rebuilding its missile or nuclear facilities and capacities. However, no consensus or outcome was achieved. The IRGC is most likely to continue with its nuclear program while citing threat like current wars, feel experts.
Bureau Report
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