NewDelhi | April 29, 2026 After an extensive, multi-phase field exercise, the teams at Shining India Survey and Shining India News have released their Exit Poll 2026 projections for four major states — Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and West Bengal.
The findings are based on large-scale ground sampling, voter interactions, and booth-level assessments, making this one of the most comprehensive independent exit poll exercises of the election cycle.
Methodology Snapshot
- Total Sample Size (4 States): 2.21+ lakh respondents
- Approach: On-ground Face to face interviews + demographic balancing
- Coverage: Urban, semi-urban, and rural and remote area polling stations
- Error Margin: ±2% to ±3% (vote share), seat variability higher in close contests
1. Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026
Sample Size: 65,289 | Total Seats: 234
Party wise Seat Projection
- DMK+ : 124 ±11
- AIADMK+ : 103 ±8
- TVK. : 7 ±4
Close Contest: 38 seats
In a closely contested election, the DMK holds a slight edge and is in a position to form the government. However, TVK is emerging as a significant challenger, giving a tough fight across multiple constituencies. The AIADMK alliance also remains strong in several seats. Around 37 seats are in direct close contest, while in nearly 32 constituencies, TVK is creating a triangular fight by challenging both major alliances.
Vote Share
- DMK+ : 38.6% ±3
- AIADMK+ : 37.3% ±3
- TVK : 16.2% ±3
- OTH : 3.9% ±1 (NTK+OTH)
- Silent : 4.0%
Reading: A neck-and-neck contest, with DMK+ holding a structural edge due to alliance spread and vote efficiency. TVK emerges as a key disruptor.
2. Kerala Exit Poll 2026
Sample Size: 37,169 | Total Seats: 140
Party wise Seat Projection
- UDF : 84 ±8
- LDF : 53 ±7
- NDA : 3 ±2
Close Contest: 21 seats
Vote Share
- UDF : 43.6% ±3
- LDF : 38.2% ±3
- NDA : 13.5% ±3
- OTH : 1.3% ±1
- Silent : 3.4%
Reading: A clear advantage for UDF, suggesting a possible anti-incumbency shift against LDF.
3. Assam Exit Poll 2026
Sample Size: 35,792
Party wise Seat Projection
- BJP+ : 88 ±7
- INC+ : 31 ±6
- AIUDF: 3 ±2
- OTH : 4 ±2
Close Contest: 19 seats
Vote Share
- BJP+ : 45.8% ±3
- INC+ : 37.5% ±3
- AIUDF : 3.6% ±1
- OTH : 8.9% ±3
- Silent : 4.2%
BJP+ is projected to retain a comfortable lead, with opposition fragmented.
The Shining India Survey indicates that the BJP is likely to secure a significant lead in Assam. Voter sentiment suggests a strong inclination towards the re-election of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Government schemes and welfare initiatives appear to have positively influenced voters, with many expressing support for continuity in leadership.
4. West Bengal Exit Poll 2026
Sample Size: 83,195
Seat Projection
- TMC : 159 ±15
- BJP : 128 ±11
- INC : 3 ±2
- LEFT : 2 ±1
- OTH : 2 ±1
Close Contest: 37 seats
Vote Share
- TMC : 43.5% ±3
- BJP : 40.8% ±3
- LEFT : 4.9% ±2
- INC : 3.7% ±1
- OTH : 2.2% ±1
- Silent : 5.2%
Reading: A competitive electoral landscape, with TMC ahead but a significant number of swing seats.
In a close contest, the TMC holds a slight advantage over its rivals. While the electoral battle remains highly competitive across constituencies, current trends indicate that TMC is marginally ahead in key seats, giving it an edge in the overall contest.
National-Level Takeaways
- Close contests dominate in Tamil Nadu & West Bengal
- Clear mandate trend visible in Kerala (UDF) and Assam (BJP+)
- Over 100+ seats across states fall in close contest category
- Final outcomes may vary within projected margins
Disclaimer
Exit polls are indicative, not definitive. Final results may vary depending on counting-day dynamics, postal ballots, and last-mile vote consolidation.
“If silent voters consolidate in favour of any one party, the final outcome could differ from the current projections.”
Editorial Note
This report reflects the rigorous ground effort of field researchers, analysts, and data teams at Shining India Survey and Shining India News, who conducted deep, on-ground voter engagement across regions to capture the pulse of the electorate.
Bureau Report
Leave a Reply